Wine leaders: 'Anti-alcohol' narrative causing slow sales

By Caleb Hampton

Winemakers in the U.S. and abroad are struggling to sell their product, and leaders in the sector are increasingly focused on one culprit.

“It’s the louder and louder anti-alcohol messages from various corners, both domestically and internationally,” Danny Brager, a wine expert and consultant, said last month at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento.

According to Shanken, a news organization that collects data on wine, beer and spirits, 2023 was the third consecutive year of negative volume growth for U.S. wine sales, following more than a decade of flattening consumption. Some in the wine sector have traced the origin of negative health messaging around wine to a 2018 study published by The Lancet, which found there was “no safe level” of alcohol consumption for avoiding long-term health consequences.

Since then, groups including the World Health Organization have promoted public health messaging that warns against any level of alcohol consumption. According to a Gallup poll from last year, more than half of young adults were concerned that moderate drinking was unhealthy, up from 35% five years prior. Middle-aged adults also showed increased health concerns around alcohol consumption.

“Unfortunately, the science of wine and health is nuanced and complex and doesn’t fit the same sound bites as the anti-alcohol forces,” Steve Fredricks, president of Turrentine Brokerage, said at the symposium.

Critics of the 2018 study—and of the public health response to it—argue that its authors overstated the risks associated with moderate drinking. The study found that consuming one drink per day slightly increased the risk of tuberculosis and breast cancer, while it slightly decreased risk of diabetes and heart disease. The data for “all attributable causes” of mortality showed almost no discernable risk related to consuming one drink per day.

In the study’s findings, the authors wrote, “The level of consumption that minimizes health loss due to alcohol use is zero.” And they advised governments to revise public health policies to “lower population-level consumption.”

For decades, wine enjoyed a reputation for having positive health benefits when consumed in moderation. Now, winemakers and industry leaders fear they are losing the war around health messaging.

“It is the No. 1 issue facing the wine business globally,” Fredricks said. “We’ve got to coordinate efforts against this anti-alcohol force and this narrative.”

Brager echoed that message. “It’s really critical that our industry fights back at an industry level effectively and with urgency, ensuring that findings are transparent, they’re fair, unbiased and they’re based on sound science,” he said.

Health concerns around alcohol have combined with demographic shifts, inflation, cannabis legalization and other factors to create a challenging market for winemakers.

The reduced demand and excess inventory impact California winegrape growers.

In 2023, wineries placed smaller orders from vineyards and waited until later in the season to purchase grapes on the spot market, according to industry experts.

As long as supply exceeds demand, “growers are going to see increased pressure on price, increased quality standards, all the while we’ve got to deal with decreased margins from the last few years,” Fredricks said.

To remedy the situation—and to combat the negative health narrative around alcohol—winemakers are looking to market wine more successfully to younger consumers and are working to develop new products, including low-alcohol and nonalcoholic wines.

Meanwhile, industry leaders have encouraged growers to reduce the winegrape supply. “We have unwanted production that’s out there in the ground,” Jeff Bitter, president of Allied Grape Growers, said at the symposium.

Bitter advised growers to tear out tens of thousands of acres of winegrapes statewide. He estimated it would take three years of vineyard removals to achieve market balance.

“The reality is that we’ve got declining demand,” Bitter said. “The wholesaler has got too much inventory and the retailer has too much inventory, so everything gets pushed back.”

(Caleb Hampton is an assistant editor of Ag Alert. He may be contacted at champton@cfbf.com.)